Three Majors Flipped to a Hike. The Desk Number Is 35 New-Money Cuts Since June and 52 Variables Below 6%

1. The number the forecast wrap left out

The trade press will lead with the forecast flip. Fair enough — three majors reversing a 2027-cut call after one CPI print is news. The number a principal should sit with is quieter, and it sits in the same day’s Canstar wrap that Australian Broker also printed.

Thirty-five lenders have cut variable rates for new customers since 1 June. Fifty-two lenders now offer at least one variable below 6%. Sally Tindall, Canstar’s data insights director, put the operational line on the table: if your variable rate starts with a 6 or a 7 as an owner-occupier, you are likely paying a loyalty tax that can be instantly shaved off by shopping around, or at least haggling with your current bank.

Read that against the majors. They flipped their forecasts. The new-money window kept cutting. That split is the week. A client on a 6-handle or a 7-handle is not waiting for Michele Bullock. They are paying the difference between the book they already hold and the rate a new customer can still be shown.

2. What the four banks actually printed — and when

ANZ moved first. NAB and CBA followed. All three expect a 25bp increase before year-end. Timing differs.

NAB: September meeting, 28–29. Sally Auld, NAB Chief Economist, said July CPI showed inflation running hotter than the Reserve Bank expected in early August, and that the Bank had repeatedly signalled it would act if upside risks were realised. Risk, she said, is biased towards an additional hike in November if activity data shows resilience. At this stage NAB looks for one hike to a cash-rate peak of 4.60%.

CBA and ANZ: November. Harry Ottley, CBA economist, told Australian Broker the bank has fairly high conviction the RBA will hike this year. The question is September or November. He favours November — for more inflation data, including the quarterly print. He noted the monthly trimmed mean for July was 0.5% in one month. Canstar’s same-day piece said CBA is now predicting a November hike to 4.60%; if it happens, the highest cash rate since October 2011.

Westpac stays out. Justin Smirk, Westpac senior economist, said the July print came in hotter than expected and the risk of a November hike had increased. Surprise increases concentrated in cars, household goods, restaurants and domestic travel; new housing and rents broadly as expected. Westpac still expects a hold this year and a cut midway through 2027.

Cash rate sits at 4.35% after three increases in 2026. Governor Michele Bullock said after the August meeting that the Bank would consider raising rates again “if that is what is required to bring inflation down in a timely way.” Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, later in the month in Brisbane, named Middle East conflict, AI investments and weak productivity as potential further inflation sources. That is the Bank talking. It is not a hike that has happened.

3. Do not flatten NAB’s one-hike base versus Canstar’s two-hike 4.85

NAB’s own 27 August note is specific: one hike to 4.60%, with risk of an extra November move. Canstar, in the same day’s Australian Broker wrap, said NAB had flagged a possible second move in November which would take the cash rate to 4.85% — the highest since the GFC. That 4.85% is Canstar’s two-hike arithmetic / NAB’s flagged possible second. It is not NAB’s base case. Do not flatten them on a fact-find or in a client SMS.

Canstar modelled both paths. If the RBA hikes in September and November, a borrower with a $600k mortgage and 25 years remaining could face an extra $183 a month from those two moves alone, taking the cumulative increase across five hikes this year to $456 a month. A $1m mortgage could face $759 in cumulative monthly increases. Those are modelled IF both land. They are not a forecast this desk is making, and they are not a reason to tell a client their repayment will rise by those amounts. The RBA has not hiked. Westpac still says it will not.

Separately, Canstar modelled a single November 25bp move: about $91 a month on $600k / 25 years remaining; four hikes this year cumulative +$363 on $600k; $800k +$121 / +$484; $1m +$152 / +$605 — owner-occupier P&I, assuming banks pass on the month after. That is a one-hike-in-November case. Different from the two-hike $183 / $456 print. Keep them labelled.

4. Tindall’s two levers — shopping around or haggling

Tindall’s operational line is the one that belongs on a working desk. Mortgage holders should not wait for the Board’s September decision to take action. If your variable starts with a 6 or a 7 as an owner-occupier, you are likely paying a loyalty tax that can be instantly shaved off by shopping around, or at least haggling with your current bank.

She also said the economic narrative U-turned in a couple of days; the core inflation annual figure has not gone down in the last eight rounds of monthly data; the next four weeks is the time to review; and the gap between big-four variables and smaller lenders continues to widen.

This piece will not name a destination lender. A below-six print is a shop-window fact. Policy, serviceability, accreditation, turnaround and the existing loan are the file. Shopping around and haggling are the two levers she named. Some lenders advertise for new customers. Others negotiate privately. You find that out on the phone, not in a forecast wrap.

Do not send the book to one lender because they printed a five this week. Shop windows move. A habit built on this week’s lowest print is a single point of failure with a 5-handle on it.

5. Futures are not a decision — next meeting 28–29 September

Thursday futures were pricing about a 40% chance of a September hike, rising to around 97% for November if the Bank skips September. A futures price is not a decision. The next meeting is 28–29 September.

None of ANZ, NAB, CBA or Westpac is a rate you put on a fact-find. They are named calls. Ottley’s monthly trimmed-mean note (0.5% in one month) and Auld’s hotter-than-RBA-expected July print explain why the calls flipped. Headline CPI at 3.5% (down from 3.8% to June) and trimmed mean at 3.6% unchanged since November 2025 are the trigger numbers — already covered on this desk as a serviceability conversation. Ottley: the headline drop was partly base effects. Mention CPI here only as why three majors flipped. Do not rehash yesterday’s post as the lead.

Write what you will say if the Board hikes, and what you will say if it holds. Both sentences should start with the file in front of you, not with NAB’s September call.

6. Four bands for the live book by first digit

If you cannot produce the list, that is the finding. Sort the live owner-occupier variable book by the first digit of the rate.

Starts with a 5. Already in the shop window. That is not a skip. Confirm the existing rate, remaining term, and whether a private negotiation still exists. Do not assume the 52 below six includes this client’s lender.

Starts with a 6. This is Tindall’s loyalty-tax band. Open it first. Current rate, comparison, whether the existing lender advertises cuts for new money or only haggling. Write a named fallback so a stall is not a dead end.

Starts with a 7. Same conversation, louder. Do not wait for September. Do not wait for November. The modelled $183 is what two future hikes would add. The loyalty tax is what this file is paying now.

Fixed, or not an owner-occupier variable, or already a hardship file. Different conversation. Break costs, remaining fixed term, responsible lending, aggregator process. A Canstar below-six print is not a hardship product.

The tool below walks the same four bands. The sort takes an afternoon. The conversation with the six-handles and seven-handles is the week.

7. Three actions before 28 September

1. Sort the live owner-occupier variable book by the first digit of the rate. Five, six, seven. If you cannot produce the list, that is the finding. The September call can wait.
2. Open the six-handles and seven-handles first. Shopping around or haggling — Tindall’s two levers. Do not send the book to one lender because they printed a five this week.
3. Write what you will say if the Board hikes, and what you will say if it holds. Both sentences start with the file in front of you, not with NAB’s September call. A principal who can name three major-bank forecasts and cannot name how many live files start with a six has a rate sheet. They do not have a book.

The unfinished sentence is that a channel which can see 35 new-money cuts since June, and then spends the week arguing about whether September or November is the meeting, has chosen the forecast over the loyalty tax it can already see.