There is a number in the latest Roy Morgan data that every broker should read as a to-do list, not a headline: 26.6% of mortgage holders – roughly 1.41 million Australians – are now at risk of mortgage stress after the RBA’s back-to-back hikes in February and March 2026.

That figure has climbed in the wake of the most recent increase – the third consecutive in the cycle – which lifted the cash rate to 4.35%. Translate it into the kitchen-table maths your clients are doing right now: on a $600,000 loan, the 2026 hikes have added about $272 a month, close to $3,265 a year, to repayments. That is a holiday, a term of school fees, or a buffer that no longer exists.

For brokers, this is the moment the back book stops being a passive asset and becomes the centre of the business. The 26.6% signal is not only a risk metric. It is a retention opportunity, a trust-building opportunity and – handled properly – a care opportunity. The brokers who treat rising stress as a prompt to reach out, rather than a problem to wait out, will protect their trail, deepen relationships and catch refinance and restructure conversations months before a client goes quiet, defaults, or refinances away through someone else.

Why the back book is the front line now

Most brokers’ marketing energy goes to the front of the funnel – leads, settlements, new business. But in a rate environment like this one, the cheapest and most defensible growth you have is sitting in your CRM. These are clients who already trust you, whose circumstances you already know, and whose loans are quietly drifting toward a refinance trigger or a stress point.

Consider what 26.6% means for a typical book. If you have 400 active clients, statistically more than 100 could be in or near mortgage stress. Some are coping on paper but anxious. A smaller group is genuinely struggling – leaning on credit cards or quietly falling behind. The problem is that stress is invisible from the outside, and the client who is hurting most is often the one least likely to call you. Shame, denial and the hope that “things will improve next month” keep people silent until the situation is harder to fix.

Care first, retention second

Before any playbook, the framing matters. This is not a churn-prevention campaign dressed up as concern. The brokers who do this well lead with a genuine question – “How are you travelling with the repayments?” – and let commercial outcomes follow. Clients can tell the difference between an outreach that exists to keep their trail alive and one that exists to help them, and they reward the latter with loyalty and referrals.

It is also the only framing that survives contact with your obligations. Under the Best Interests Duty (BID), any recommendation must genuinely serve the client’s interests, not your remuneration, and responsible lending obligations sit alongside it. A proactive call that surfaces a real problem and points the client toward the right solution – a rate review, a restructure, or where appropriate their lender’s hardship process – is care and compliance working together. A call that exists only to talk someone out of leaving is neither.

Step one: triage the book

You cannot call 400 clients with the same message this week, and you should not try. Sort the book by likely stress and likely action so your limited time goes where it matters most – on roll-off dates, loan vintage and rate, repayment-to-income at origination, LVR position, and known life-stage changes. From that, build three tiers.

Step two: the hardship conversation

Some of these calls will surface real distress. When they do, the conversation shifts gear – from review to support – and there is a way to handle it that is both compassionate and compliant.

1. Listen first. Let the client describe what is happening without rushing to a solution. People in stress need to be heard before they can think clearly about options.
2. Map the realistic paths. A rate review or refinance, a restructure such as extending the term or a defined interest-only period, debt consolidation, or the lender’s own hardship arrangements.
3. Point to the right help. Where there is genuine hardship, make sure the client knows they can apply directly to their lender’s hardship team, and point them to support services. Your role is to open the door, not be the only door.
4. Be clear about what is and is not advice. If you recommend a product change, BID applies in full. If you are helping a client understand lender hardship options, frame it as exactly that – and document either way.
5. Follow up. A hardship conversation is rarely resolved in one call. Set a follow-up date, confirm next steps in writing, and check back. The follow-through is where trust is won.

The compliance guardrails, in plain terms

The commercial case, stated honestly

Done with care, this playbook pays for itself. Retention improves because supported clients do not shop around. Refinance and restructure volume rises because you catch the conversation early, on your terms, before a competitor’s cashback ad does. Referrals grow because a client you helped through stress tells everyone. And your trail book – the quiet engine of a broking business – is defended against exactly the churn a 26.6% reading would otherwise drive. But the order of operations is what makes it work: care first, commercial outcomes second. Reverse it and you get neither.

The bottom line

The 26.6% figure is not a reason to brace for losses. It is a prompt to do the most valuable work available right now – reaching into the back book, with genuine concern, before clients reach a crisis. Triage the book. Sequence the outreach. Lead every conversation with “how are you travelling?” rather than a pitch. Know where the BID and responsible-lending lines sit, and know when to hand a struggling client to their lender’s hardship team. The brokers who call first – and call to help, not to sell – will come out of this cycle with a stronger book, deeper trust and a reputation no rate move can touch.