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This audio version covers: Growing Borrower Concern as Cash Rate Threatens a 15-Year High
Cash at 4.35%. Another +25bp Would Hit 4.60% — Highest Since 2011
Finconnex Financial director Bishnu Aryal is fielding more nervous FHB and investor calls ahead of the RBA’s 29 September 2026 decision — while Cotality’s September print shows prices and sales already under pressure.
The numbers on the desk
Cash rate now
After three RBA rises this year, as framed in Aryal’s commentary.
If another +25bp
Highest cash rate since 2011 — a 15-year high for many borrowers who never held a loan then.
Extra / month
Aryal’s investor-portfolio example: another rise adds close to $1,000 a month across the book.
Below peak (HVI)
Cotality September Home Value Index — prices down five consecutive months.
Aug-quarter sales YoY
Cotality: weaker activity alongside the five-month price pullback.
Who is on the phone
Already stretching income
Aryal worries most about FHBs making ends meet — many never managed a loan in a 2011-style rate setting.
Portfolio-level shock
The standout file was multi-property: model the book, not one facility, before you brief.
Prices down, sales softer
Five months of Cotality HVI falls and a −15.5% August-quarter sales print — confidence already thin.
Desk read vs headline
What to put in the file note
- Today’s repayment vs +25bp repayment — before 29 Sep.
- Cheaper list price ≠ more affordable if capacity falls (Aryal).
- Attribute: Aryal / Cotality / RBA path as in the release.
What not to over-claim
- Do not predict the Board will hike — preparedness is the product.
- Do not invent a crash or a buy/sell call from Cotality’s print.
- Do not treat one loan’s buffer as portfolio safety.
The takeaway for your desk
Nervous clients are already calling. Arrive with attributed repayment maths, separate price relief from serviceability, and a script for FHBs and investors before the twenty-ninth — not after the statement.
Sources: Finconnex Financial / Bishnu Aryal media release (Hunter & Scribe); Reserve Bank of Australia cash-rate path as cited in the release; Cotality September Home Value Index and August-quarter sales figures as cited in the release.
Growing Borrower Concern as Cash Rate Threatens a 15-Year High
Cash sits at 4.35% after three rises this year. Another +25bp would take it to 4.60% — highest since 2011. Finconnex’s Bishnu Aryal on nervous FHBs, investors and the desk script before 29 September.
In this article
Borrowers are growing increasingly concerned ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next interest rate decision on 29 September 2026, with both homeowners and investors questioning how much higher their repayments could climb.
That is not a consumer headline for your CRM blast. It is a preparedness problem on live files — first home buyers already stretching income, and investors who need the shock measured across the portfolio, not one loan.
What clients are asking before 29 Sep
Finconnex Financial director Bishnu Aryal says the last few weeks have brought a clear change in tone on the phone.
“In the last few weeks, I’ve had a lot more conversations with clients who are nervous about what might happen on September 29. It’s a mix of first home buyers and investors, and they all want to know the same thing: are rates going to rise and how much more would that cost me?”
Bishnu Aryal, Director, Finconnex Financial
On a working desk, that question is answerable without pretending to know the Board’s vote. Put today’s repayment and a +25bp repayment side by side. Attribute the cash-rate path. Leave the forecast language to economists — your product is the dollar delta and the buffer check.
Cash at 4.35% — the path to 4.60%
Per the release, the RBA has increased the cash rate three times this year, taking it to 4.35%, and has warned that it could tighten monetary policy further if inflationary pressures persist.
A growing number of economists, including those at the big four banks, expect another increase before the end of the year. A further 25-basis-point rise would take the cash rate to 4.60% — its highest level since 2011.
Attribution — keep it clean
Cash at 4.35% after three rises this year, and 4.60% if another +25bp lands (highest since 2011): RBA path and market expectations as cited in Aryal’s release. Do not invent an RBA forecast this desk has not been given.
Aryal’s read of the client mood is that the direction of travel is understood — what unsettles people is the idea that the top is not yet in.
“People understand that rates move up and down, but I think what is unsettling them is the possibility that we’re not at the top yet.”
Bishnu Aryal, Director, Finconnex Financial
The ~$1,000 portfolio conversation
One recent conversation stood out for Aryal: an investor with a few investment properties. When they worked through the numbers, another rate rise would add close to $1,000 a month to repayments across the portfolio.
“That’s a serious number for anyone to absorb, and you could hear the worry in their voice,” he said.
That is the broker operational truth. A single-loan PMT can look manageable while the book does not. Before you tell an investor they have headroom, sum the delta across every facility — the same way Aryal’s example was modelled.
Why a 15-year high lands differently now
Aryal notes that a cash rate of 4.60% would take borrowers into an interest-rate environment Australia had not experienced for 15 years.
“There are plenty of borrowers today who didn’t have a mortgage in 2011, so they’ve never had to manage a home loan in an interest rate environment like this. It’s not just investors – first home buyers who are already stretching their income to make ends meet are the ones I worry about most.”
Bishnu Aryal, Director, Finconnex Financial
For your FHB files, that is a coaching and capacity conversation, not a history lesson. Many purchase clients in the current book have only ever repaid in a lower-rate decade. Walk them through the +25bp dollar figure before they lock an offer strategy around a hold assumption.
Cotality: prices down, sales softer
The prospect of another rate rise lands on a market already under pressure. Cotality’s September Home Value Index showed prices have fallen for five consecutive months and are now 3.6% below their peak.
Weaker activity is travelling with that pullback: Cotality reported that sales activity in the August quarter was 15.5% lower than the year before.
Aryal says another rate rise could put further pressure on buyer confidence, although lower property values could provide some relief for prospective buyers. That relief is conditional — which is the next section.
Cheaper ≠ more affordable
This is the line to put in the standfirst of every purchase brief this fortnight:
“There are two sides to it. If property prices continue to come down, that can make it easier for some people to get into the market, particularly first home buyers. But a cheaper property isn’t necessarily more affordable if higher interest rates mean you can borrow less and your repayments are higher. That’s the difficult equation buyers are dealing with at the moment.”
Bishnu Aryal, Director, Finconnex Financial
Cotality’s five-month fall and 3.6% pullback from peak do not automatically clear more files if assessment maths moves against the borrower. Price relief and serviceability are separate columns in the note.
What to say on the desk this week
Aryal’s close is the compliance-safe frame: do not make major financial decisions based solely on forecasts about where interest rates might go.
“No one knows for certain what the RBA will do next, and borrowers can’t control interest rates. What they can control is how prepared they are. If another rate rise would put serious pressure on your budget, work out what it would mean for your repayments now rather than waiting for rates to move.”
Bishnu Aryal, Director, Finconnex Financial
Broker takeaways before 29 Sep
- Model +25bp now — today’s repayment vs stressed repayment in writing before the meeting.
- Split the scripts — FHBs stretching income need buffer language; investors need portfolio aggregation (Aryal’s ~$1,000 example).
- Attribute every figure — 4.35% / 4.60% path as cited; ~$1,000 from Aryal; −3.6% and −15.5% from Cotality.
- Hold the affordability line — cheaper list price ≠ more affordable if borrowing capacity falls.
- Preparedness over prediction — you do not need to call the Board to run the maths.
Broker FAQ
Is this desk saying the RBA will hike on 29 Sep?
No. The release cites market expectations of another increase before year-end and frames a further +25bp as taking cash to 4.60% (highest since 2011). The broker product is repayment preparedness, not a Board forecast.
Where does the ~$1,000 figure come from?
Aryal’s client conversation: an investor with a few investment properties. Another rate rise would add close to $1,000 a month across the portfolio. It is an example, not a universal rule — model each book.
What are the Cotality figures exactly?
September Home Value Index: prices down five consecutive months and 3.6% below peak. August-quarter sales activity 15.5% lower year on year. Attribute both to Cotality as cited in the release.
How should I brief FHBs differently from investors?
FHBs already stretching income need the +25bp dollar figure and a capacity/buffer check before offers. Investors need portfolio-level maths — sum the delta across facilities, matching Aryal’s example pattern.
Is this credit advice or a buy/sell call?
No. This is contributed commentary for professional development. It does not recommend buying or selling any property and it is not credit advice. Apply your assessment, lender policy and best interests duty to each file.
- Finconnex Financial / Bishnu Aryal — Hunter & Scribe media release: growing borrower concern as rates threaten a 15-year high (quotes, client portfolio example, desk framing).
- Reserve Bank of Australia — cash rate at 4.35% after three rises this year; further +25bp to 4.60% (highest since 2011) as framed in the release and cited market expectations.
- Cotality — September Home Value Index (five consecutive months of falls; 3.6% below peak); August-quarter sales activity −15.5% year on year, as cited in the release.
Breaking news for modern brokers
Rates, markets and desk-ready numbers — without the consumer fluff.
+25bp repayment shock on a live balance
Enter loan balance, customer rate and remaining term. See today’s monthly repayment versus a +0.25 percentage point rate. Desk prep only — nothing is stored or sent. Not a credit decision.
Enter figures from the live file and run. For investors, repeat per facility and sum — matching Aryal’s portfolio framing.
Illustrative principal-and-interest repayment only. Ignores fees, offsets, IO periods, lender assessment rates and packaging. Confirm with your aggregator tools and lender policy on every file.
Disclaimer: This article is for general information and professional development purposes only. It does not constitute legal, compliance, or financial advice, and it is not a recommendation to buy or sell any property or to deal with any lender. Commentary and figures are attributed to Bishnu Aryal / Finconnex Financial, Cotality and public sources cited above. Brokers should consult their aggregator's compliance team and, where required, seek independent legal advice regarding their obligations under the National Consumer Credit Protection Act 2009 and ASIC's responsible lending guidelines.
