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This audio version covers: Cotality’s 5.2% and PropTrack’s 3.3% below peak, why 97% of capital-city suburbs falling matters more than which index is right, and how to stress a live pre-approval for a short valuation.
Two Indices, One Direction. The Gap Is in How Far
Cotality and PropTrack both printed a sixth monthly fall for September. They disagree on the distance from peak — and your valuer will not use either number.
September 2026 — the headline prints
Cotality national values in September — the sixth straight monthly fall
PropTrack national prices in September, also a sixth monthly fall
of capital-city suburbs fell over the three months to September (Cotality)
median time to sell across the capitals, up from 23 a year ago (Cotality)
Sources: Cotality, 1 October 2026; PropTrack data as reported by Mortgage Professional Australia, 1 October 2026.
Distance below peak — September 2026
Bars are scaled to the largest figure shown. Cotality and PropTrack both date the national peak to March 2026; Sydney’s Cotality peak was February. Each index uses its own methodology; the figures are not interchangeable.
Where the momentum is — PropTrack, annualised three-month falls
Adelaide
8.6%
Annualised pace of the three-month fall. A pace, not a forecast of where values land.
Brisbane
7.9%
Annualised three-month pace. Cotality separately has Brisbane down 1.5% in September alone.
Perth
7.4%
Annualised three-month pace, per PropTrack via MPA.
A slower market behind the prices
Sales volumes
-19.1%
Sales over the last three months versus a year earlier (Cotality).
Capital-city listings
+23.1%
Inventory across the capitals (Cotality).
Sydney in September
-1.4%
Monthly move, Cotality. Brisbane was -1.5%.
Both say values are lower than they were when many current pre-approvals were scoped. A pre-approval does not value the property your client ends up buying. The valuation at the unconditional stage does — and in a market where almost every capital-city suburb fell over three months, a short valuation is the scenario to plan for, not the exception.
Use the index for context. Use the valuation for the file.
Stress the LVR on every live pre-approval before your client signs a contract, not after the valuer reports.
Cotality Puts Values 5.2% Below Peak, PropTrack 3.3%. With 97% of Capital-City Suburbs Down Over Three Months, the Valuation on Your Live Pre-Approval Is the Exposure
Two indices, one direction, a two-point disagreement on distance. The argument about which one is right matters less than the valuation that lands on a pre-approval you scoped in winter.
Cotality says national home values fell 1.1 per cent in September and now sit 5.2 per cent below their March 2026 peak. PropTrack says prices fell 0.2 per cent and sit 3.3 per cent below the same March peak. Your clients will see whichever headline their feed serves them. The number that decides whether their purchase settles on the terms you scoped is neither. It is the figure a valuer signs against one address, at the unconditional stage, on a pre-approval you may have issued months ago.
In this article
1. Two indices, two distances
Cotality’s September index, published 1 October, has national values down 1.1 per cent for the month. It is the sixth monthly fall in a row and takes values 5.2 per cent below the March 2026 peak. Brisbane fell 1.5 per cent in September and Sydney 1.4 per cent. Sydney is now 8.6 per cent below its own February peak.
PropTrack’s figures, reported by Mortgage Professional Australia the same day, also show a sixth monthly fall — but a smaller one. National prices slipped 0.2 per cent in September and sit 3.3 per cent below the March peak. Across the capitals, PropTrack has prices 4.3 per cent below peak.
| Measure | Cotality | PropTrack |
|---|---|---|
| National, September month | -1.1% | -0.2% |
| National, below March 2026 peak | 5.2% | 3.3% |
| Capital cities, below peak | — | 4.3% |
| Consecutive monthly falls | Six | Six |
Both agree on direction and duration. They disagree on distance by roughly two percentage points nationally. Neither is a valuation of your client’s property.
2. Why the gap is not the story
Index providers use different data sets and different methods to strip out the mix of what sold in a given month. It is normal for them to diverge on monthly magnitude, and the divergence tends to be widest when the market is turning. A broker does not need to adjudicate between them, and should not try to in front of a client.
The index is a national average. The valuer signs one address. Only one of those numbers goes on the loan.
What matters on the desk is that both series now point the same way for six months running. If a client’s pre-approval was scoped around a purchase price that made sense in autumn, the property they contract on in spring is being assessed in a market both providers agree is lower. Whether “lower” means 3.3 per cent or 5.2 per cent nationally does not change the question you need to ask of each file: if the valuation comes in under the contract price, what happens to this deal?
The practical discipline is attribution. If you cite a figure to a client, name the provider and the date. “Cotality says 5.2 per cent below the March peak, PropTrack says 3.3” is accurate. “The market is down 5 per cent” is a blend of the two that neither provider published.
3. 97% of suburbs: breadth, not depth
The figure in Cotality’s release that deserves more attention than the headline is breadth. Over the three months to September, 97 per cent of capital-city suburbs recorded a fall. That is not a statement about how far any suburb fell. It is a statement that almost nowhere in the capitals is being carried by a rising local market.
For a broker, breadth matters more than the average. In a patchy market a client buying in a suburb that is still rising has a natural hedge against a conservative valuation. When 97 per cent of suburbs are lower over three months, that hedge is close to gone. The default assumption for a capital-city purchase this month should be that the local evidence a valuer uses is flat to softer, not firmer.
PropTrack’s annualised three-month pace tells you where the momentum is strongest. Adelaide’s three-month fall runs at an annualised 8.6 per cent, Brisbane’s at 7.9 per cent and Perth’s at 7.4 per cent. These are rates of change, not forecasts — an annualised pace describes the last quarter, not the next twelve months — but they identify where a pre-approval written on prices from earlier in the year has the most ground to make up.
“Adelaide is falling at 8.6 per cent a year” is a misreading. PropTrack’s figure is the three-month fall expressed at an annual rate. Use it to prioritise which files to check first, not to tell a client what their property will be worth at settlement.
4. Where a pre-approval is exposed
A pre-approval assesses the borrower: income, liabilities, serviceability and a maximum loan amount against an assumed purchase price. It does not assess the security, because there is no security yet. The valuation comes later, once a contract exists, and most lenders calculate the final LVR on the lower of the contract price and the valuation.
That sequence is where the exposure sits. Your client bids to a price the pre-approval supports. The contract is signed. The valuer, working from recent comparable sales in a market where almost every suburb is lower over three months, comes in under contract. The loan amount has not changed, but the LVR has, because the denominator shrank.
Depending on where the file started, a modest shortfall can do one of three things. It can push an 80 per cent file over the line into LMI territory. It can lift an LMI file into a higher premium band or past a lender’s LVR cap for that postcode or product. Or it can leave the deal workable only if the client finds the difference in cash. None of those is a credit decline in the ordinary sense — the borrower still services — but each changes the deal the client thought they had.
The timing is the problem. If the client signed unconditionally, or with a finance clause that is already close to expiry, the shortfall is discovered when their options are fewest.
5. A slower market thins the evidence
Cotality’s activity figures explain why valuations may run cautious even where prices have not fallen far. Median days to sell across the capitals have stretched to 39, from 23 a year ago. Sales over the past three months were 19.1 per cent lower than a year earlier. Capital-city inventory is up 23.1 per cent.
Fewer sales means fewer recent comparables. More stock on the market for longer means asking prices that are not yet tested by a transaction. A valuer in that environment has less fresh evidence to support a contract price that was struck competitively, and the incentive in a falling market runs toward caution rather than optimism.
This is not a claim that valuers are getting it wrong. It is a reason to expect the gap between what a motivated buyer will pay and what a valuer can evidence to widen in a soft, thin market — and to plan for it on files where the client is stretching.
6. Working the live pipeline this week
The work is not complicated. It is just easier to do before a client signs than after.
- List every live pre-approval by expiry date and LVR. Prioritise anything sitting within a few points of 80 per cent or a lender’s LVR cap, and anything in a capital where PropTrack’s three-month pace is fastest.
- Re-run the LVR at a lower valuation. Use the interactive below. Pick a shortfall and see where the file lands. A file that works at contract price but breaks at a modest shortfall needs a conversation now.
- Tell the client what a short valuation would mean in dollars. Not a forecast — a scenario. “If the valuation came in this far under, you would need this much more, or LMI would apply.” That is a planning number, not a prediction.
- Check the finance clause before they bid. Make sure the client understands the difference between a pre-approval and a formal approval with a valuation, and that the clause gives enough time to order one.
- Order upfront valuations where your lender allows it. Where a lender offers a valuation before unconditional approval, use it on stretched files. A known shortfall before exchange is a negotiation point. After exchange it is a deposit problem.
- Record the conversation. Note that you explained valuation risk, that index figures describe markets not properties, and that you gave no view on whether the client should buy.
7. What to watch next
Two things. First, whether the two indices converge or keep diverging when the October figures are released. A widening gap would make attribution even more important in client conversations. Second, whether the activity data stabilises. Days to sell, sales volumes and inventory move before prices do; if the 39-day median and the 23.1 per cent inventory build keep rising, evidence for valuers stays thin.
Neither of those is a forecast. They are the readings that tell you whether the short-valuation risk on your pipeline is growing or easing.
Key takeaways
- Cotality has national values down 1.1 per cent in September and 5.2 per cent below the March 2026 peak. PropTrack has prices down 0.2 per cent and 3.3 per cent below peak, with capitals 4.3 per cent below.
- 97 per cent of capital-city suburbs fell over the three months to September, per Cotality. Breadth, not depth, is what removes a client’s local hedge.
- PropTrack’s annualised three-month falls — Adelaide 8.6, Brisbane 7.9, Perth 7.4 per cent — are a pace, not a forecast. Use them to prioritise files.
- Days to sell at 39 (from 23), sales down 19.1 per cent and inventory up 23.1 per cent mean thinner valuation evidence.
- A pre-approval assesses the borrower, not the property. Stress every live file for a short valuation before the client signs.
Broker FAQ
Which index should I quote to clients — Cotality or PropTrack?
Either, as long as you name it and the date. They use different methods and diverge on magnitude. Do not blend them into a single “market is down” figure that neither provider published.
Does a 5.2% fall from peak mean my client’s valuation will come in 5.2% under?
No. Index figures describe markets. A valuation is about one property, its comparables and the contract price. A client who bought well could value at contract. The point is to know what a shortfall would do to the file before it happens.
What does “97% of capital-city suburbs fell” actually tell me?
That over the three months to September almost no capital-city suburb was rising, per Cotality. It says nothing about how far each fell. It does tell you that most local evidence a valuer relies on is flat to softer right now.
Is PropTrack saying Adelaide will fall 8.6% this year?
No. 8.6 per cent is Adelaide’s three-month fall expressed at an annualised rate, as reported by MPA. It is a description of recent momentum, not a forecast.
What should I do with a stretched pre-approval this week?
Re-run the LVR at a lower valuation, explain the dollar impact to the client as a scenario, confirm their finance clause, and use an upfront valuation where the lender offers one. Record the conversation.
- Cotality, September 2026 Home Value Index release, 1 October 2026. cotality.com
- PropTrack September 2026 home price data, as reported by Mortgage Professional Australia, 1 October 2026. mpamag.com
Markets, read for the file
Broker-first market notes that tell you which number belongs on a loan — and which one belongs in the news.
What Does a Short Valuation Do to This Pre-Approval?
Enter the price your client expects to pay and the loan they need. Pick a shortfall. See where the LVR lands and how much cash closes the gap. Presets use the September index figures as scenarios — not as a prediction of any valuation.
Valuation shortfall versus contract
LVR at contract price
LVR at the lower valuation
Cash that closes the gap
The client sentence
What this is. A scenario calculator. Index presets are Cotality (1 October 2026) and PropTrack via MPA (1 October 2026) figures used as illustrative shortfalls; an index move is not a valuation of any property. LVR bands are generic — LMI thresholds, caps and postcode limits are set by each lender. Nothing is stored or sent.
Disclaimer: This article is for general information and professional development purposes only. It does not constitute legal, credit, valuation or financial advice, and it is not a forecast of property values. Index movements describe markets, not individual properties, and a lender’s valuation of a specific security may differ from any index. Brokers should consult their aggregator’s credit and compliance teams and, where required, seek independent advice regarding their obligations under the National Consumer Credit Protection Act 2009 and ASIC’s responsible lending guidelines. Nothing in this article is a recommendation to buy, sell or refinance.
