Listen to the Brief
Too Busy to Read? We’ve Got You.
Get this blog post’s insights delivered in a quick audio format — all in under 10 minutes.
This audio version covers: Equifax Printed Four Straight Months of YoY Demand Decline. Plan the Book for a Smaller Enquiry Pool, Not a September Rebound
Four Months Is the Finding. July Is Just the Latest Print.
Equifax’s July cut is a 16.4 per cent year-on-year fall. Kevin James called a fourth consecutive month a lower baseline, not a rate-decision reaction. The desk job is a smaller enquiry pool — not a September rebound.
The numbers the rebound story will bury
Consecutive months of year-on-year mortgage-demand decline, April to July 2026
July overall demand, after Apr −0.9%, May −6.6%, Jun −18.8%
First-home-buyer demand in July (Australian Broker; June was −20.9%)
Same-lender refinance demand in July; switch-lender −8.4%
Gen Z demand; Millennials −20.1%; 65+ still −11%
Equifax Consumer Credit Demand, July 2026, as reported by Australian Broker (Mina Martin, 11 August 2026) and Equifax chief solution officer Kevin James. First-home-buyer July: Australian Broker −19.1%. Smart Property Investment printed −19.2% on one cut of the same report — same direction, one-tenth apart.
How the year-on-year line deepened
Bars scaled to June’s 18.8 per cent year-on-year fall, the deepest month in the four-month run. July eased only slightly. James: a handbrake in May, acceleration in June, a lower baseline by July.
Four months, then a holding pattern
−0.9% · first year-on-year dip
A rounding-error decline. Easy to read as noise. It was the first month of the run.
−6.6% · James’s handbrake
“In May, we observed a handbrake effect starting to slow demand.” Deposit-scheme support already being offset by higher rates.
−18.8% · the drop steepens
Overall demand’s deepest month. First-home buyers −20.9%. Refinance −17%.
−16.4% · fourth month · lower baseline
Every state, every published age group. Same-lender refinance −22.4%. James: holding pattern likely the remainder of the year.
Where a smaller pool actually lands
Equifax published enquiry demand. It did not publish your pipeline in dollars, and this piece will not invent one. A smaller enquiry pool is not a 16.4 per cent settlement cut. It is a smaller top of funnel. Staff, spend and partner conversations against that — not against a rebound James has already described as unlikely for the rest of the year.
If September is still the rebound month on the whiteboard, take it off
Pull last quarter’s enquiry mix, click the book that matches in the tool below, and rewrite the second-half plan for a smaller pool.
Equifax Printed Four Straight Months of YoY Demand Decline. Plan the Book for a Smaller Enquiry Pool, Not a September Rebound
July mortgage demand was 16.4 per cent lower year on year — the fourth consecutive monthly fall. Equifax’s Kevin James said the market is settling into a lower baseline, not reacting to a single rate decision. The desk job is a smaller enquiry pool for the rest of the year.
Mina Martin at Australian Broker reported Equifax’s July Consumer Credit Demand cut on 11 August 2026. Four straight months of year-on-year decline. July −16.4 per cent, after April −0.9, May −6.6 and June −18.8. Kevin James, Equifax chief solution officer, said a fourth month means demand is settling into a lower baseline, not just reacting to individual rate decisions. The figures landed the morning of a Reserve Bank decision already on the record here. This is a demand story, not a Board story. The unfinished sentence on a working desk is whether the second-half plan still assumes a September rebound.
In this article
1. Four months is the finding
July’s 16.4 per cent year-on-year fall is the print the headlines will lead with. It is not the number a principal should sit with. April was 0.9 per cent down. May, 6.6. June, 18.8 — the deepest month in the run. July eased only slightly. Four consecutive months is a sequence. A single-month story is a rebound story in disguise.
James put the sequence in order. “In May, we observed a handbrake effect starting to slow demand, and June saw that trend accelerate,” he told Australian Broker. “With July marking our fourth consecutive month in negative territory, the data indicates that mortgage demand isn’t just reacting to individual rate decisions — at this current stage it appears to be settling into a lower baseline.”
That is the sentence the second-half plan has to survive. A lower baseline is a smaller enquiry pool. It is not a forecast of your settlements, and this piece will not invent one. Equifax published demand. It did not publish your pipeline in dollars.
A fourth month of year-on-year decline is not a rate-decision hangover. It is a smaller enquiry pool. Staff the rest of the year for that.
2. Every state, every published age group
Earlier months showed pockets of resilience, particularly among older borrowers. July did not. Demand fell most sharply among Gen Z, down 21.1 per cent, and Millennials, down 20.1 per cent. The 65-plus cohort, which had held up, recorded an 11 per cent decline. The Adviser, reporting the same Equifax cut, also had working-age declines: 15.7 per cent among 35–45 and 14.5 per cent among 46–55. There is no age pocket left to hide in.
Every published state fell. Queensland 18.6 per cent. South Australia 17. Victoria 16.7. New South Wales 16. Western Australia the shallowest, still 12.8 per cent below July a year earlier. A national number you can explain as Sydney or Melbourne is not this table. A state you thought was still running hot is in it.
Broad is the operational point. A book that is “not first-home buyers” or “not Queensland” still sat inside a falling market. The tool below is for the mix you actually ran last quarter, not the mix you wish had been spared.
3. First-home buyers fell faster than the market
Australian Broker has first-home-buyer demand down 20.9 per cent in June and 19.1 per cent in July. That is the July figure this piece will use. Smart Property Investment, on the same Equifax report, printed first-home-buyer demand at −19.2 per cent in one cut. Same direction, one-tenth apart. Do not treat them as two different markets.
James said the early-year support from government deposit schemes had largely been offset by higher rates. The five per cent deposit scheme pulled demand forward. It did not create a permanently larger first-home-buyer pool. If a material share of last quarter’s enquiries were first-home buyers, that share is not a second-half run-rate. It is the cohort that just printed the steepest published cut.
None of that is a reason to stop taking first-home-buyer files. It is a reason to stop staffing, spending and promising referring partners as if the scheme-era line is still the line.
4. The same-lender reprice wave has played out
Refinance is not the overflow a quieter purchase market is supposed to provide. Total refinancing demand fell 17 per cent in June and 15.5 per cent in July. Same-lender refinance fell 22.4 per cent in July. Switch-lender refinance fell 8.4 per cent.
James’s reading is specific. The earlier wave of borrowers renegotiating directly with their existing bank has largely run its course. “The four-month drop in same-lender refinancing suggests that much of that initial repricing wave has played out,” he said. “Today, stricter bank serviceability buffers and elevated household expenses mean fewer borrowers are actively seeking or qualifying to adjust their home loans.”
Read the last clause as two gates. Fewer seeking. And fewer qualifying. A same-lender reprice that used to be a Tuesday phone call is now a serviceability conversation. Switch-lender work is the slice that held up better. Held up better is not growth. It is the least-bad line in a falling table — and it is still a smaller pool.
If same-lender refinance was the overflow that kept the week full, James says that wave has played out. Buffers and elevated expenses are now the gate. Switch-lender at −8.4 per cent is conversion work, not a volume story.
5. A holding pattern for the rest of the year
James did not leave the horizon open. “Without a clear signal on cash rate relief or broader economic easing, this cautious holding pattern is likely to remain the reality for the remainder of the year.” In May, a handbrake. In June, acceleration. In July, a fourth month and a lower baseline. The remainder of the year is the holding pattern, not a weather report for August.
The Equifax cut was published on 11 August, the morning the Board sat. That decision is already covered here. It is dating, not this story. A hold does not refill an enquiry pool James has already described as settling lower. Do not wait for the next statement to rewrite the roster.
A holding pattern is a staffing decision, a lead-spend decision, and a referring-partner conversation. It is not a reason to invent a settlement forecast. Demand is not settlements. A smaller enquiry pool can still produce a decent month if conversion, panel speed and file quality hold. It cannot produce last year’s enquiry count.
6. Plan the book for a smaller pool
Four questions before you touch the second-half plan. If you cannot answer them, that is the finding.
What was last quarter’s enquiry mix, by product, not by feeling. First-home buyer, other purchase, same-lender refinance, switch-lender refinance. File count if you do not have dollars. Equifax’s percentages are not your book.
What share of those enquiries were first-home buyers. A book that rode the deposit-scheme surge is now riding a cohort down 19.1 per cent in July, after 20.9 in June.
What share was same-lender refinance. If that kept the week full, the reprice wave has played out, and buffers plus expenses are the gate.
Does the second-half roster, the lead spend, and what you have already told referring partners still assume a September rebound. If yes, you are planning against the baseline Equifax just described.
The tool below maps the same four books. Click the one you actually ran. Each is a different job for this week.
7. Three actions this week
- Pull last quarter’s enquiries and split them. First-home buyer, other purchase, same-lender refinance, switch-lender. Dollar value if you have it; file count if you do not. Do not invent a settlement forecast from Equifax’s percentages. Use your own book.
- Rewrite the second-half plan against a smaller pool. Roster, lead spend, and what you have already told referring partners. If September is still the rebound month on the whiteboard, take it off. James’s holding pattern is the remainder of the year.
- Change the conversation, not the conversion fantasy. Tell partners the enquiry pool is smaller and the same-lender reprice wave has played out. Keep a named fallback on every live file. A quieter market is when a single-lender habit becomes a single point of failure.
James is right that four months is a baseline, not a blip. He is right that deposit-scheme support was offset by higher rates, that the reprice wave has played out, and that buffers plus expenses mean fewer qualify. The unfinished sentence is that a lower baseline is only useful if you stop staffing the desk for the old one.
Key takeaways
- Four consecutive months of year-on-year mortgage-demand decline: April −0.9 per cent, May −6.6, June −18.8, July −16.4. James: a lower baseline, not a rate-decision reaction.
- Every published state fell (QLD −18.6, SA −17, VIC −16.7, NSW −16, WA −12.8). Gen Z −21.1, Millennials −20.1, 65+ −11. The Adviser’s same cut also had 35–45 at −15.7 and 46–55 at −14.5.
- First-home buyers: June −20.9, July −19.1 on the Australian Broker cut (SPI printed −19.2 on one cut). Deposit-scheme support offset by higher rates.
- Refinance: June −17, July −15.5. Same-lender July −22.4; switch-lender −8.4. The same-lender reprice wave has largely played out. Fewer seek, and fewer qualify.
- James: cautious holding pattern likely the remainder of the year. Equifax published enquiry demand, not your pipeline. Do not invent a settlement forecast. Plan the book for a smaller pool.
Broker FAQ
Is this saying my settlements will fall 16.4 per cent?
No. Equifax published enquiry demand, not settlements, and not your pipeline. A smaller top of funnel can still produce a decent month if conversion, panel speed and file quality hold. It cannot produce last year’s enquiry count. Do not staff or promise as if it will.
Why are there two first-home-buyer July figures — 19.1 and 19.2?
Same Equifax report, two trade-press cuts. Australian Broker (Mina Martin, 11 August 2026) has July first-home-buyer demand −19.1 per cent after −20.9 in June. Smart Property Investment printed −19.2 per cent in one cut. This piece uses −19.1. Same direction, one-tenth apart.
Does the August rate decision change the baseline?
The Equifax cut landed the morning of 11 August. That Board decision is already covered here and is not this story. James’s holding pattern is the remainder of the year, absent a clear signal on cash-rate relief or broader easing. A hold does not refill the enquiry pool.
If I am not first-home-buyer weighted, am I fine?
No pocket was spared. Every published state fell. Every published age group fell. Same-lender refinance — the overflow a quieter purchase book is supposed to lean on — was −22.4 per cent in July. Switch-lender was the least-bad line, at −8.4, and is still a smaller pool.
What do I actually do this week?
Pull last quarter’s enquiries and split them by product. Rewrite the second-half roster, lead spend and partner conversation against a smaller pool. Take September-rebound language off the whiteboard. Keep a named fallback on every live file.
- Australian Broker, “Mortgage demand settles into a ‘lower baseline’ as rate hikes bite”, Mina Martin, 11 August 2026 (Equifax July 2026 Consumer Credit Demand; comments from Kevin James, Equifax chief solution officer).
- The Adviser, “Mortgage slump spreads across every state and age group”, Charlie Tchetchenian, 11 August 2026 (same Equifax cut; additional 35–45 and 46–55 year-on-year figures; same-lender June −18.8 per cent).
- Smart Property Investment, “FHB market loses momentum as demand declines”, August 2026 (same Equifax report; one cut printed first-home-buyer demand −19.2 per cent — this piece prefers Australian Broker’s −19.1 per cent for July).
- Equifax Australia commentary as reported in the above, including James on deposit-scheme offset, the four-month baseline, the remainder-of-year holding pattern, and the same-lender reprice wave.
Breaking news for modern brokers
Demand prints reported with the staffing decision attached, not just the year-on-year rate.
Where Does a Smaller Pool Hit Your Book?
Click the mix that matches last quarter’s enquiries — not the mix you wish had been spared. Each book is a different job for a lower baseline.
This is a mix check, not a settlement calculator. Equifax published national demand, not your pipeline. If you have to guess the mix, pull last quarter first.
Start with last quarter, not the national print
Most desks can say the market is quieter. Fewer can say whether last quarter was first-home-buyer weighted, same-lender refinance, switch-lender and purchase, or a broad book. Click a mix when you can defend it. The four views below are written for a working desk, not a credit committee.
What Equifax printed
First-home-buyer demand fell faster than the market: −20.9 per cent in June, −19.1 per cent in July on the Australian Broker cut. James said deposit-scheme support has largely been offset by higher rates. That is the steepest published cohort.
What it means on the desk
A book that rode the five per cent deposit scheme is now riding a smaller entry-level pool. The scheme pulled demand forward. It did not lock in a second-half run-rate. Gen Z (−21.1) and Millennials (−20.1) sit in the same cut.
Action this week
Count how much of last quarter was first-home buyer, in files and in dollars if you have them. Stop treating that share as the rest-of-year line. Rewrite lead spend and referring-partner conversations around a smaller entry-level pool, and keep a named fallback on every live first-home-buyer file.
What Equifax printed
Same-lender refinance demand fell 22.4 per cent in July. Total refinance was −17 per cent in June and −15.5 in July. James: the four-month drop means much of the initial same-lender reprice wave has played out. Stricter buffers and elevated expenses mean fewer seek, and fewer qualify.
What it means on the desk
The overflow that kept a quieter purchase week full is the slice that fell hardest. A Tuesday reprice is now a serviceability conversation. Counting those calls as pipeline is how a holding pattern becomes a missed month.
Action this week
Pull every live same-lender refinance. Mark which still clear a current buffer and which do not. Stop putting Tuesday reprices on the settlement board. If a client no longer qualifies to adjust, that is a conversation this week — not a hope that September refills the list.
What Equifax printed
Switch-lender refinance fell 8.4 per cent in July — the least-bad refinance line against same-lender at −22.4. Overall demand was still −16.4. Held up better is not growth. It is a smaller pool with more of the remaining work in conversion.
What it means on the desk
You are not in the steepest published cut. You are in the cut where panel speed and a named second path decide whether a smaller enquiry list still settles. A single-lender habit is more expensive when the top of funnel is thinner.
Action this week
Time the last three switch or purchase files: days to decision, fallback named or not. Lodge one comparable file on the next-best lender this week so the path is current. Conversion and panel coverage are the job — not a volume story.
What Equifax printed
Every published state fell, Queensland through Western Australia. Every published age group fell, Gen Z through 65-plus. First-home buyers and refinance both contracted. There is no pocket of resilience left in the July table.
What it means on the desk
A diversified book did not dodge the print. It sat inside it. The job is the whole enquiry process: which enquiries you take, how fast you decline the ones that will not qualify, and how you talk to referring partners about a quieter second half.
Action this week
Split last quarter anyway — first-home buyer, other purchase, same-lender, switch-lender — so you know which slice is doing the damage. Then rewrite roster, lead spend and partner language against James’s remainder-of-year holding pattern. Take the September rebound off the whiteboard.
A note on what this is. A mix check, not a settlement forecast and not a recommendation for or against any lender. Equifax published national enquiry demand for July 2026. It did not publish your pipeline. Dollar share and file count of last quarter are still the inputs. If you do not have those numbers, that is the first job.
Disclaimer: This article is for general information and professional development purposes only. It does not constitute legal, compliance, or financial advice, and it is not a recommendation for or against any lender. Equifax figures are national enquiry-demand prints as reported by the cited trade press and are not a forecast of any brokerage’s settlements or pipeline. Brokers should consult their aggregator’s compliance team and, where required, seek independent legal advice regarding their obligations under the National Consumer Credit Protection Act 2009 and ASIC’s responsible lending guidelines.
