The Forecast Spread Is the Story
Three major banks have published FY27 housing credit forecasts. They do not agree, and the gap between them is roughly the difference between a flat year and a difficult one.
System housing credit growth forecasts, FY27
Westpac’s 4.7% is down from 6.8% in FY26. CBA chief executive Matt Comyn indicated 4–5% was the more likely part of its range. Source: The Adviser, 19 August 2026.
Inside NAB’s number
NAB is not forecasting a slower investor market. It is forecasting a shrinking one.
Three ways to read the disagreement
Do not pick the forecast that suits your plan. A brokerage built on 4.7 per cent that gets 2.5 per cent has a cost problem it discovers too late. A brokerage built on 2.5 per cent that gets 4.7 per cent has capacity it can add quickly. The asymmetry should decide your assumption, not optimism.
Plan for the low number, build for the high one
Fixed costs sized to the pessimistic forecast, growth capacity that can be switched on if the optimistic one arrives.
NAB Just Forecast Housing Credit Growth of 2.5% — About Half the Other Banks. Plan Your Business for Both
Three major banks have published FY27 housing credit forecasts that differ by nearly two to one. The right response is not to pick one — it is to notice which way the planning risk runs.
NAB has forecast system housing credit growth of 2.5 per cent for the year to September 2027, with investor lending contracting 1.4 per cent. Westpac says 4.7 per cent and CBA says 4 to 6 per cent. That spread is roughly the difference between a manageable year and a painful one — and it means your business plan needs to work at both ends of it.
In this article
1. What NAB forecast
NAB has forecast system-wide housing credit growth of just 2.5 per cent in the year to September 2027, down from 6.7 per cent in FY26.
The composition is more striking than the headline. NAB expects owner-occupier lending to grow 4.5 per cent while investor lending contracts by 1.4 per cent. That is not a slowing investor market; it is a shrinking one.
The forecast sits well below its peers. Westpac has forecast 4.7 per cent for FY27, down from 6.8 per cent in FY26. CBA has published a range of 4 to 6 per cent, with chief executive Matt Comyn indicating the bank believed a figure in the range of 4 to 5 per cent was more likely.
Financial commentator Alan Kohler put the gap plainly: “That is a big drop, it is substantial, it’s about half what the other banks are forecasting.” And on what it would mean if borne out: “If NAB is right then the housing downturn is going to be a lot bigger than anyone currently expects.”
NAB’s own application data is consistent with its forecast. Total home loan applications fell 15 per cent over the June quarter and 16 per cent year-on-year, with investor applications down 17 per cent and owner-occupier applications down 14 per cent.
2. Why a system credit forecast matters to a brokerage
System housing credit growth is not a number most brokers track, and it is worth being clear about what it does and does not tell you.
It measures the growth in the total stock of housing credit outstanding — new lending net of repayments and discharges. It is not a forecast of settlement volumes, and it is not a forecast of your revenue. A market can have flat credit growth and still generate substantial broker activity through refinancing, which shuffles the stock between lenders without adding much to it.
What it does tell you is the direction and scale of the pool everyone is competing for. And at 2.5 per cent, with investor credit contracting, it describes a market where growth in the aggregate is close to absent. In that environment, revenue comes from share rather than from the market rising underneath you.
In a 6.7 per cent market, standing still is growth. In a 2.5 per cent market with investor credit shrinking, standing still is decline.
3. The asymmetry that should drive your planning
The temptation with a forecast spread this wide is to average it, or to pick the one you prefer. Both are mistakes, because the two outcomes are not symmetrical in what they cost you to get wrong.
If you plan for 4.7 per cent and the market delivers 2.5 per cent, you have a cost base sized for revenue that does not arrive. Staff hired, office space committed, marketing budgets set, software subscriptions signed. Fixed costs are slow and painful to remove, and you discover the problem several months after the revenue has already gone.
If you plan for 2.5 per cent and the market delivers 4.7 per cent, you have capacity constraints in a busier market. That is a genuine problem — missed opportunity, longer turnarounds, strain on your team — but it is a problem you can fix in weeks by adding contract support, and it is a problem that arrives with the revenue to pay for it.
Asymmetric risks deserve asymmetric planning. Size the fixed cost base to the pessimistic forecast; design the growth capacity so it can be switched on quickly if the optimistic one arrives.
4. Where the revenue is in a low-growth market
If aggregate credit growth is close to flat, revenue has to come from somewhere other than the market expanding. There are four realistic sources, and they are not equally available to everyone.
- Refinancing. Movement between lenders does not require credit growth. It requires a reason to move and a broker who identifies it. This is the most accessible source for a brokerage with an existing book.
- Share of a shrinking pool. Winning business from other brokers or from proprietary channels. Real, but slow, and it depends on referral relationships built before you needed them.
- Product diversification. Commercial, asset finance, SME lending and personal risk. These sit outside the housing credit number entirely, which is precisely the point.
- Higher conversion on the same leads. The cheapest revenue in a thin market. If you convert 40 per cent of opportunities and could convert 50, that is a 25 per cent revenue increase without a single additional enquiry.
Note that three of those four are within your control regardless of which forecast is right. That is why they are the correct focus.
5. A planning framework for an uncertain year
This is a practical sequence for translating a contested forecast into decisions you can actually make.
- Establish your fixed cost floor. Work out what your business costs to run per month with no discretionary spend at all. This is the number that has to be covered in the worst case, and most principals have never calculated it precisely.
- Model revenue at both forecasts. Take your FY26 revenue and model it at NAB’s 2.5 per cent and Westpac’s 4.7 per cent, holding your market share constant. The gap between those two numbers is your planning uncertainty in dollars.
- Check whether the low case covers the floor. If it does not, you have a decision to make now, while you have time to make it calmly, rather than in six months.
- Separate committed costs from switchable ones. Anything you can turn on and off — contract processing, variable marketing, casual support — belongs in the growth plan, not the base. Push as much as possible into that category.
- Set a trigger, not a date. Decide in advance what evidence would tell you which forecast is closer — your own application volumes over two consecutive months is the most reliable signal you have — and what you will do when you see it.
- Protect the diversification work. The first thing cut in a tight month is the activity that pays off in six. Commercial accreditations, referral relationships and database work should be ring-fenced from short-term cost decisions.
6. Watch your own applications, not the forecasts
Here is the most useful thing in the whole story. NAB’s forecast is built on data that you also have.
NAB can see its applications fell 15 per cent over the June quarter, and that investor applications fell 17 per cent. It is forecasting from that. You have the same signal for your own business, at higher frequency, with no lag.
Your application volume by month, split by borrower type, is a better guide to your next six months than any published forecast — because it reflects your market, your referral sources and your client base rather than the national aggregate. If your investor applications are down 17 per cent, NAB’s forecast is describing your business. If they are flat, it is not.
Most brokerages do not track this in a form that supports a decision. Building that report is a one-hour job and it converts a macro debate you cannot resolve into an operational fact you can act on.
7. What to watch next
- Whether other lenders revise down toward NAB, which would suggest NAB was early rather than pessimistic.
- APRA monthly ADI statistics, which show actual housing credit growth month by month and will settle the question before the forecasts do.
- Your own application volumes by borrower type over the next two months.
- Refinancing volumes, which can hold up even when credit growth does not and are the most accessible revenue source in a flat market.
- Investor credit specifically — NAB is forecasting outright contraction, which would be a materially different market to a general slowdown.
Key takeaways
- NAB forecasts system housing credit growth of 2.5 per cent for the year to September 2027, down from 6.7 per cent in FY26, with investor lending contracting 1.4 per cent and owner-occupier growth at 4.5 per cent.
- Westpac forecasts 4.7 per cent and CBA 4 to 6 per cent, with Matt Comyn indicating 4 to 5 per cent was more likely. Alan Kohler noted NAB’s number is “about half what the other banks are forecasting”.
- NAB’s own home loan applications fell 15 per cent over the June quarter, with investor applications down 17 per cent.
- The planning risk is asymmetric: over-building a cost base is slow and painful to unwind, while under-building capacity in a better market is fixable in weeks.
- Your own monthly application volumes by borrower type are a better guide to your next six months than any national forecast.
Broker FAQ
Does 2.5 per cent credit growth mean my settlements fall 2.5 per cent?
No. System housing credit growth measures the change in total credit outstanding, net of repayments and discharges. Refinancing moves loans between lenders without adding much to the stock, so broker activity can hold up even when credit growth is weak.
Which forecast should I plan on?
Size your fixed costs to the lower one and design your growth capacity so it can be added quickly if the higher one eventuates. The two errors are not equally costly, so they should not be treated the same way.
Why is NAB so much lower than the others?
That has not been publicly explained. Its own applications fell 15 per cent over the June quarter, which is consistent with the forecast, but whether that reflects the market or NAB’s position within it is not established. Treat the spread as genuine uncertainty.
What is the fastest revenue lever in a flat market?
Conversion. If you convert 40 per cent of opportunities and could convert 50, that is a 25 per cent revenue increase with no additional enquiries — and it does not depend on which forecast is right.
How do I know which way the market is actually going?
Track your own application volumes monthly, split by borrower type. It is your market, without the lag and without the aggregation, and building the report takes about an hour.
- The Adviser, “NAB predicts sharp housing credit slowdown”, 19 August 2026, including comments from Alan Kohler and comparison forecasts attributed to Westpac and CBA.
Breaking news for modern brokers
Business planning built on the numbers rather than the narrative.
Model Your Year at Both Forecasts
Put in your own revenue and cost base. This shows what NAB’s 2.5 per cent and Westpac’s 4.7 per cent look like for your business if your market share holds constant — and whether the low case still covers your floor.
If the last figure is negative, that is a decision to make now while you have time to make it calmly, rather than in six months. The switchable share of your costs is what determines how quickly you could respond.
A note on what this is. This is simple arithmetic on numbers you supply, not a revenue forecast for your business. It assumes your market share is constant, which it will not be, and it ignores refinancing, diversification and conversion — all of which are within your control and none of which depend on which bank is right.
Disclaimer: This article is for general information and professional development purposes only. It does not constitute legal, compliance, or financial advice. Brokers should consult their aggregator's compliance team and, where required, seek independent legal advice regarding their obligations under the National Consumer Credit Protection Act 2009 and ASIC's responsible lending guidelines.
