Navigating the Shifting Tides

An infographic analysis of the Australian Property Market for Q3 2025, designed for mortgage and finance brokers.

The Macroeconomic Snapshot

The RBA's cautious easing cycle, driven by moderating inflation, is providing a significant tailwind for the property market. However, the recovery is described as "affordability-constrained," leading to more moderate growth than in past cycles.

RBA Cash Rate

3.60%

↓ 75 basis points in 2025

Annual Headline CPI

2.1%

Back within RBA's target band

National Performance: A Supply-Driven Story

National Value Growth (July)

+0.6%

6th consecutive month of growth

Listings vs. 5-Year Average

-20%

Creating intense buyer competition

The Widening Gap: Houses vs. Units

Since the pandemic, house values have risen almost three times as much as units, pushing the price gap to a record high. This is making the unit market increasingly attractive for affordability-focused buyers.

A Multi-Speed Market Emerges

The national figures mask stark local differences. The recovery in Sydney and Melbourne is gathering pace, while the booms in Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide show signs of moderating.

Median House Prices (June Qtr 2025)

The Push & Pull of Lending

The Fixed vs. Variable Conundrum

Lenders are pricing 3-year fixed rates below 1-year rates—a strong signal they expect the RBA to continue cutting.

Key Prudential Handbrake

3%

Serviceability Buffer

APRA is holding the line, ensuring lending standards remain sound and preventing the market from overheating despite lower rates.

The Opportunity Horizon

For First-Home Buyers

  • Leverage Grants: A non-negotiable starting point. QLD's $30k grant is a massive advantage.
  • Target the Unit Market: The record price gap offers a more accessible entry point with strong potential for 'catch-up' growth.
  • Focus on "Affordable & Liveable": Guide clients to suburbs like Keperra (Brisbane) that balance price and amenities.

For Investors

  • Chase High Yields: Perth is the national leader, with suburbs like Bayswater offering 8.0% unit yields.
  • Play for Capital Growth: Melbourne's recovery presents a classic "buy-in" opportunity as the market rebounds.
  • Consider "Rent-vesting": Invest in a high-growth market like Perth while renting in a desired lifestyle location like Sydney.